Value Plus Soccer

Discussion about football systems, tipsters, etc.
Post Reply
TheBetEngine
Posts: 1526
Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:02 am

Value Plus Soccer

Post by TheBetEngine » Sat Mar 21, 2015 1:51 pm

Product: Value Plus Soccer
Author: Steve Davidson
Web Site: http://valueplussoccer.com/michael.htm
Status: Commercial

pemean
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: Value Plus Soccer

Post by pemean » Wed Apr 01, 2015 11:33 pm

Been running this since 16/3/15 and after 13 bets to flat staking (3pts per pairing) this is where I'm at after today;

1/4/15
CIERNOMOREC v DNIPRO 0-4 +0.55pts / COVENTRY v LEYTON ORIENT 0-1 +1.7pts /
Double 4.19 +3.19pts

Daily P/L; +5.44pts Trial P/L; +3.02pts

From the 13 bets; 4 double wins / 6 single wins which gives a small loss /3 straight losses

Lowest point so far -4pts 17/3/15
Highest point so far +7.23pts 21/3/15

p.s. TBE - site clock needs changing!

pemean
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: Value Plus Soccer

Post by pemean » Fri Apr 03, 2015 4:11 pm

2/4/15

MARITIMO v PORTO 1.53 2-1 -1pt
SPYRIS KAUNAS v KRUOJA 1.73 0-2 +0.73pts
Double @2.65 -1pt

Daily P/L; -1.27pts Trial P/L; +1.75pts

pemean
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: Value Plus Soccer

Post by pemean » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:02 pm

I have been trialling this for just over a month now and based on 1pt flat stakes (3pts per selection) I am over +19pts. The software can throw up some selection anomalies but with a bit of common sense research and checking these can soon be sorted out. There are also a number of other free sites which use the 'Neural Network Software', one of which is easier to use in terms of timings which are based on BST.

Latest Result

DKiev @1.4 1-3 +0.4pts / Napoli @ 1.91 0-3 +0.91pts/ Double @2.6 +1.6pts

Daily P/L; +2.91pts Trial P/L; +19.39pts

TheGM
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:07 am

Re: Value Plus Soccer

Post by TheGM » Tue Apr 21, 2015 11:09 pm

How are you placing these bets pemean (ie TBE) or directly with bookies?

You mention NN software - what is the basis of selection (ie Ratings)?

..

pemean
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: Value Plus Soccer

Post by pemean » Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:16 pm

I'm using Oddschecker and the betbasket facility to find the best odds at the bookies or Betfair Exchange.

The NN software uses past results and other discrete data to give a % outcome prediction - needs to be interpreted with some care but it is a useful/interesting addition to using a stats based approach - worth using for experimenting with your own angles / interests.

I'm just using small (flat) stakes for this to keep it interesting along with some 'bending of the rules' for personal preference - will see how it goes for a while but initial scepticism has been surprised...currently!

http://www.iambettor.com/ site is better than http://www.prosoccer.gr/index.html.

There's also http://www.prosoccer.eu/ which gives a fuller explanation of NN and is aimed at European matches.

TheGM
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:07 am

Re: Value Plus Soccer

Post by TheGM » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:49 pm

Thanks Pemean - I have since done a little more digging (on the dirty digger) and even caught up with your own blog regarding this betting approach.

The foundational basis of VPS is aimed at exploiting the Fav-longshot bias present in Football matches (discussed and quantified here http://www.football-data.co.uk/blog/fav ... otball.php).

I suppose the reliance on the (free) NN software ratings is designed to further enhance and narrow down optimal selections within the Fav-longshot bias framework - a noble feat most rating services would lay claim to (but at least the NN ratings are FREE).

Final filters exclude "Home" sides and some matches such as "friendlies" from consideration.

The second component of VPS is the betting approach - 1 unit win wagers on paired selections and also 1 unit on the double. No magic here - if the individual bets do not produce "VALUE" outcomes the multi bet will prove even more disastrous.

All in all a simple basic selection approach founded on established Fav-longshot principles. The suggested wagering approach is frippery.

..

pemean
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: Value Plus Soccer

Post by pemean » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:20 pm

Thanks TheGM - your link made for good reading. Another surprising week for me using this simple strategy which some poor blighters have paid £70 for! I'm now over 25pts profit since 16/3/15 using a bit of low odds selection swerving! It can't last but it is interesting to see how it develops over a few months.

TheGM
Posts: 81
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:07 am

Re: Value Plus Soccer

Post by TheGM » Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:29 pm

If per chance the NN can consistently identify and churn out VALUE propositions then the ingredients of long term success is there.

In the meantime it remains speculative. But from the VPS sales blurb the claim is that the subject market represents "fair value" rather than being capable of exploiting any sort of statistical edge.

The reliance for generating profits falls on the recovery staking plan. The mooted staking proportions, 1 unit across each selection AND the double is amateurishly misconcieved. And as mentioned in the GFB thread, you are stuck with the worse end of the ODDs within the double wager.

..

Post Reply