Value Plus Soccer

 Posts: 1501
 Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:02 am
Value Plus Soccer
Product: Value Plus Soccer
Author: Steve Davidson
Web Site: http://valueplussoccer.com/michael.htm
Status: Commercial
Author: Steve Davidson
Web Site: http://valueplussoccer.com/michael.htm
Status: Commercial
Re: Value Plus Soccer
Been running this since 16/3/15 and after 13 bets to flat staking (3pts per pairing) this is where I'm at after today;
1/4/15
CIERNOMOREC v DNIPRO 04 +0.55pts / COVENTRY v LEYTON ORIENT 01 +1.7pts /
Double 4.19 +3.19pts
Daily P/L; +5.44pts Trial P/L; +3.02pts
From the 13 bets; 4 double wins / 6 single wins which gives a small loss /3 straight losses
Lowest point so far 4pts 17/3/15
Highest point so far +7.23pts 21/3/15
p.s. TBE  site clock needs changing!
1/4/15
CIERNOMOREC v DNIPRO 04 +0.55pts / COVENTRY v LEYTON ORIENT 01 +1.7pts /
Double 4.19 +3.19pts
Daily P/L; +5.44pts Trial P/L; +3.02pts
From the 13 bets; 4 double wins / 6 single wins which gives a small loss /3 straight losses
Lowest point so far 4pts 17/3/15
Highest point so far +7.23pts 21/3/15
p.s. TBE  site clock needs changing!
Re: Value Plus Soccer
2/4/15
MARITIMO v PORTO 1.53 21 1pt
SPYRIS KAUNAS v KRUOJA 1.73 02 +0.73pts
Double @2.65 1pt
Daily P/L; 1.27pts Trial P/L; +1.75pts
MARITIMO v PORTO 1.53 21 1pt
SPYRIS KAUNAS v KRUOJA 1.73 02 +0.73pts
Double @2.65 1pt
Daily P/L; 1.27pts Trial P/L; +1.75pts
Re: Value Plus Soccer
I have been trialling this for just over a month now and based on 1pt flat stakes (3pts per selection) I am over +19pts. The software can throw up some selection anomalies but with a bit of common sense research and checking these can soon be sorted out. There are also a number of other free sites which use the 'Neural Network Software', one of which is easier to use in terms of timings which are based on BST.
Latest Result
DKiev @1.4 13 +0.4pts / Napoli @ 1.91 03 +0.91pts/ Double @2.6 +1.6pts
Daily P/L; +2.91pts Trial P/L; +19.39pts
Latest Result
DKiev @1.4 13 +0.4pts / Napoli @ 1.91 03 +0.91pts/ Double @2.6 +1.6pts
Daily P/L; +2.91pts Trial P/L; +19.39pts
Re: Value Plus Soccer
How are you placing these bets pemean (ie TBE) or directly with bookies?
You mention NN software  what is the basis of selection (ie Ratings)?
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You mention NN software  what is the basis of selection (ie Ratings)?
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Re: Value Plus Soccer
I'm using Oddschecker and the betbasket facility to find the best odds at the bookies or Betfair Exchange.
The NN software uses past results and other discrete data to give a % outcome prediction  needs to be interpreted with some care but it is a useful/interesting addition to using a stats based approach  worth using for experimenting with your own angles / interests.
I'm just using small (flat) stakes for this to keep it interesting along with some 'bending of the rules' for personal preference  will see how it goes for a while but initial scepticism has been surprised...currently!
http://www.iambettor.com/ site is better than http://www.prosoccer.gr/index.html.
There's also http://www.prosoccer.eu/ which gives a fuller explanation of NN and is aimed at European matches.
The NN software uses past results and other discrete data to give a % outcome prediction  needs to be interpreted with some care but it is a useful/interesting addition to using a stats based approach  worth using for experimenting with your own angles / interests.
I'm just using small (flat) stakes for this to keep it interesting along with some 'bending of the rules' for personal preference  will see how it goes for a while but initial scepticism has been surprised...currently!
http://www.iambettor.com/ site is better than http://www.prosoccer.gr/index.html.
There's also http://www.prosoccer.eu/ which gives a fuller explanation of NN and is aimed at European matches.
Re: Value Plus Soccer
Thanks Pemean  I have since done a little more digging (on the dirty digger) and even caught up with your own blog regarding this betting approach.
The foundational basis of VPS is aimed at exploiting the Favlongshot bias present in Football matches (discussed and quantified here http://www.footballdata.co.uk/blog/fav ... otball.php).
I suppose the reliance on the (free) NN software ratings is designed to further enhance and narrow down optimal selections within the Favlongshot bias framework  a noble feat most rating services would lay claim to (but at least the NN ratings are FREE).
Final filters exclude "Home" sides and some matches such as "friendlies" from consideration.
The second component of VPS is the betting approach  1 unit win wagers on paired selections and also 1 unit on the double. No magic here  if the individual bets do not produce "VALUE" outcomes the multi bet will prove even more disastrous.
All in all a simple basic selection approach founded on established Favlongshot principles. The suggested wagering approach is frippery.
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The foundational basis of VPS is aimed at exploiting the Favlongshot bias present in Football matches (discussed and quantified here http://www.footballdata.co.uk/blog/fav ... otball.php).
I suppose the reliance on the (free) NN software ratings is designed to further enhance and narrow down optimal selections within the Favlongshot bias framework  a noble feat most rating services would lay claim to (but at least the NN ratings are FREE).
Final filters exclude "Home" sides and some matches such as "friendlies" from consideration.
The second component of VPS is the betting approach  1 unit win wagers on paired selections and also 1 unit on the double. No magic here  if the individual bets do not produce "VALUE" outcomes the multi bet will prove even more disastrous.
All in all a simple basic selection approach founded on established Favlongshot principles. The suggested wagering approach is frippery.
..
Re: Value Plus Soccer
Thanks TheGM  your link made for good reading. Another surprising week for me using this simple strategy which some poor blighters have paid £70 for! I'm now over 25pts profit since 16/3/15 using a bit of low odds selection swerving! It can't last but it is interesting to see how it develops over a few months.
Re: Value Plus Soccer
If per chance the NN can consistently identify and churn out VALUE propositions then the ingredients of long term success is there.
In the meantime it remains speculative. But from the VPS sales blurb the claim is that the subject market represents "fair value" rather than being capable of exploiting any sort of statistical edge.
The reliance for generating profits falls on the recovery staking plan. The mooted staking proportions, 1 unit across each selection AND the double is amateurishly misconcieved. And as mentioned in the GFB thread, you are stuck with the worse end of the ODDs within the double wager.
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In the meantime it remains speculative. But from the VPS sales blurb the claim is that the subject market represents "fair value" rather than being capable of exploiting any sort of statistical edge.
The reliance for generating profits falls on the recovery staking plan. The mooted staking proportions, 1 unit across each selection AND the double is amateurishly misconcieved. And as mentioned in the GFB thread, you are stuck with the worse end of the ODDs within the double wager.
..