I keep getting asked the same question so I thought it best to address it here.
The question that arises from time to time, is "Why did I not get matched on horse X when I am placing bets at BSP.?" Of course, this always appears when the horse has gone on to win!
The answer is very simple. YOU ARE BETTING AT BSP ODDS BUT YOU ARE NOT PLACING BSP BETS.
Let me explain:
BSP bets are special bets that can only be placed on Betfair BEFORE the start of a race.
The Win Form Pro system only bets on horses where the BSP lies within a defined odds range. However, as the BSP odds are only published AFTER the start of the race, this means that your bets have to be placed InPlay and this mean that you cannot place BSP bets. Instead you have to place bets at BSP odds - that means you are placing a normal bet but requesting the BSP odds as the odds at which you want to be matched.
If the odds drop when the race starts, or sufficient money hits the market to drive the prices down, then you MAY not get matched.
In addition, InPlay bets are subject to a Betfair-imposed delay. This is about 1 second for a normal bet and about 3-4 seconds for a below Betfair-minimum bet. The odds on the market will continue to move during this delay. This further increases your chances of not being matched.
If the odds continue to stay below the published BSP odds for the remainder of the race, then your bet remains unmatched and is cancelled (lapsed) by Betfair at the end of the race.
So, why does this seem to affect winners rather than losers?
The simple answer is that the odds on a winner drop, whilst the odds on a loser rise. So, if a horse moves out of contention, then the odds will rise and any unmatched bets at higher odds get matched. If the horse goes on to win, then the odds remain low, which means that the unmatched bets remain unmatched.
The knowledgebase contains advice for increasing your chances of being matched.
See http://betdynamics.uservoice.com/knowle ... ng-matched for more details.
My advice is to use Maximise Chances - this fires in the bet at odds of 1.01 and allows Betfair to match at the best odds available. If market movements are against you, then you won't be matched at the BSP odds but you should be matched.
Win Form Pro and unmatched bets
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TheBetEngine
- Posts: 1710
- Joined: Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:02 am
Re: Win Form Pro and unmatched bets
A case in point was the 14:55 race at Chelmsford City on the 18th March 2015.
In this particular race, the published BSP odds on the favourite (Watersmeet) were 2.54. However, these odds were not actually available on the market at the start of the race. The actual odds available on the favourite were 2.52.
At the start of the race, bets were placed using the published BSP odds (i.e. bets were placed at odds of 2.54).
As Betfair will only match a back bet if the odds on the market are greater than or equal to the requested odds, the bets were initially unmatched (odds of 2.54 were requested, but odds of only 2.52 were available).
Watersmeet went on to win the race. The odds on the market dropped from the start of the race until the end of the race, which meant that any bets placed at odds of 2.54 remained unmatched until the race was completed. At the end of the race, Betfair cancelled the unmatched bets.
If the Maximise Chances option had been ticked in TheBetEngine, then any bet placed on Watersmeet would most likely have been matched, albeit at odds less than 2.54.
In this particular race, the published BSP odds on the favourite (Watersmeet) were 2.54. However, these odds were not actually available on the market at the start of the race. The actual odds available on the favourite were 2.52.
At the start of the race, bets were placed using the published BSP odds (i.e. bets were placed at odds of 2.54).
As Betfair will only match a back bet if the odds on the market are greater than or equal to the requested odds, the bets were initially unmatched (odds of 2.54 were requested, but odds of only 2.52 were available).
Watersmeet went on to win the race. The odds on the market dropped from the start of the race until the end of the race, which meant that any bets placed at odds of 2.54 remained unmatched until the race was completed. At the end of the race, Betfair cancelled the unmatched bets.
If the Maximise Chances option had been ticked in TheBetEngine, then any bet placed on Watersmeet would most likely have been matched, albeit at odds less than 2.54.